A new study from ETH Zurich shows that human-induced climate change has intensified and increased the frequency of more than 200 global heat waves from 2000 to 2023. Major fossil fuel and cement producers are identified as substantial contributors to this alarming trend.
In a compelling new study, researchers have unveiled that human-induced climate change has significantly increased the intensity and frequency of over 200 heat waves around the world from 2000 to 2023.
The study, published in the journal Nature, points to emissions from the 180 largest producers of fossil fuels and cement as substantial contributors to these extreme weather events.
Led by Sonia Seneviratne, a professor at ETH Zurich, the research team analyzed 213 heat waves across all continents, emphasizing that climate change has accelerated the likelihood of these events.
“Climate change has made each of these heat waves more likely and more intense, and the situation has worsened over time,” lead author Yann Quilcaille, a postdoctoral researcher in Seneviratne’s research group, said in a news release.
In quantifying this phenomenon, the study found that global warming made heatwaves 20 times more likely between 2000 and 2009, and as much as 200 times more likely between 2010 and 2019, compared to the period from 1850 to 1900.
The research delves into the role of “carbon majors,” the 180 largest fossil fuel and cement producers, who are collectively responsible for 60% of humanity’s cumulative CO2 emissions since 1850.
By running climate models that exclude emissions from individual carbon majors, the researchers could pinpoint the degree to which these companies influence global warming and, subsequently, heat waves.
“For each heat wave, we calculate how climate change affected its intensity and likelihood,” added Quilcaille. “We identify both the impact of each individual company and the combined effects of other human and natural factors.”
The results indicate that emissions from carbon majors have significantly exacerbated climate change, making heat waves more frequent and severe.
The study highlights 14 primary carbon majors that have the same impact on climate change as the remaining 166 entities combined.
The study reveals that the top five fossil fuel producers, whether state-owned or investor-owned, are based in the former Soviet Union, with the People’s Republic of China ranking next due to its coal production. This is followed by major oil and gas exporters, including Saudi Aramco, Gazprom and ExxonMobil.
“While the 14 largest carbon majors have contributed the most to the occurrence of heatwaves, the contributions of smaller players also play a significant role,” Quilcaille added.
Even the smallest emitters, like the Russian coal producer Elgaugol, have had enough impact to cause 16 heat waves.
The combined impact of the 14 largest players is sufficient to trigger more than 50 heatwaves that would have been nearly impossible without the influence of climate change.
The findings have profound implications for climate policy and corporate accountability.
“Past studies have mostly looked at emissions from people and countries. This time, we’re focusing on the big carbon emitters,” added Quilcaille.
The study suggests that these companies bear significant responsibility due to their substantial carbon footprints and historical knowledge of their impact on global warming.
The significance of this research extends beyond academic knowledge, potentially influencing case law related to climate change and the “polluter pays” principle.
“We are now at the point where we recognize the serious consequences of extreme weather events for the world’s economies and societies – heat-related deaths, crop failures and much, much more,” Quilcaille added. “People are concerned about who contributed to these disasters.”
Moving forward, the researchers aim to explore the contributions of individual actors to other extreme weather events like heavy rainfall, droughts and fires. This approach will advance our understanding of specific responsibilities and possibly inform decisions by policymakers globally.
Source: ETH Zurich