An ISGlobal-led study reveals how Arctic sea ice loss could lead to drier weather in California and wetter conditions in Spain and Portugal during winter. The findings highlight the significance of Arctic climate changes on global weather patterns.
A new study led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has revealed significant insights into how the diminishing Arctic sea ice influences global climate patterns. The researchers discovered that the reduction in ice cover could lead to drier winters in California and wetter winters in Spain and Portugal. This study, supported by the “la Caixa” Foundation, marks a major step forward in understanding the regional impacts of Arctic climate changes.
Published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, the study utilized a novel approach to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss from other climate change factors. By employing three models of varying complexity, the team ran simulations with historical sea ice data and then compared them to scenarios with significantly reduced ice cover.
“There is much scientific disagreement about the remote effects of Arctic sea ice loss. So far, many studies have focused on the long-term effects, on a scale of centuries. Others have investigated the response to sea ice loss with modeling setups that artificially impose heat to melt the sea ice, potentially affecting the simulated response. Some studies have been changing Antarctic and Arctic sea ice cover at the same time, making it difficult to discern their individual contributions” lead author Ivana Cvijanovic, an ISGlobal researcher, said in a news release. “In our study, we have developed a methodology to assess the impact of Arctic ice loss without adding any heat fluxes, and we focused on the impacts developing within a few decades”
The loss of Arctic sea ice alters the surface albedo, or the reflectivity of the Arctic Ocean, removes the insulation between the atmosphere and the ocean, and affects salinity profiles. These local changes can trigger atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections, influencing weather patterns far beyond the Arctic.
“It should be made clear that the conclusion is not necessarily that it will rain less in California and more in the Western Mediterranean in the coming years. In addition to the ice cover loss in the Arctic, there are many other factors responding to greenhouse gas emissions and affecting the climate (atmospheric and oceanic feedbacks and circulation changes, Antarctic sea ice loss, vegetation feedbacks, etc.). In any case, understanding the influence of this phenomenon separately will help us to refine global predictions,” added last author Desislava Petrova, an ISGlobal researcher.
This study offers significant perspectives, especially considering recent weather anomalies that mirror the modeled patterns, such as the prolonged Californian drought from 2012 to 2016.
“Despite all the different influences in our planet’s climate system, it is interesting to note that the anomalies in the atmospheric circulation patterns of the last few decades show some striking similarities to the patterns simulated in our study — especially events such as the Californian drought of 2012-2016,” Cvijanovic added.
The research underscores the critical importance of Arctic sea ice in regulating weather patterns across the globe, emphasizing the far-reaching consequences of its decline. As climate change continues to alter the Earth’s systems, understanding these relationships becomes essential for developing more accurate global climate predictions.