A recent international study indicates that nearly 40% of the world’s glaciers will disappear even if global warming is halted at today’s levels, emphasizing the urgent need for more aggressive climate action.
An alarming new study suggests that nearly 40% of global glacier mass will be lost even if we manage to cap global warming at the current level of 1.2 degrees Celsius. The study, involving 21 scientists from 10 countries, paints a grim picture: even under the most optimistic climate scenarios, a large portion of the world’s glaciers is destined to vanish.
The team of researchers employed eight glacier models to examine long-term ice loss across more than 200,000 glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica. Their findings indicate that if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius — the target set by the Paris Climate Agreement — just over half of the glacier mass could be preserved.
However, even without any additional warming, the world’s glaciers are set for significant reduction due to their delayed reaction to changes in climate.
“The results underline the fact that current climate policy plays a decisive role in how glaciers will develop in the future. Not just concerning the coming decades, but also in several hundred years’ time. It illustrates the responsibility we carry for generations to come,” co-author Ben Marzeion, a professor in the MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen, said in a news release.
The study predicts that this inevitable glacier melt will contribute over 10 centimeters to global sea levels.
“Our study makes it painfully clear that every fraction of a degree matters,” added co-lead author Harry Zekollari from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel. “The choices we make today will resonate for centuries, determining how much of our glaciers can be preserved”.
In all scenarios investigated, glaciers lose mass rapidly over decades, followed by slower melting over centuries, even in the absence of further warming. This long-term melting means the current warming will have lasting impacts until glaciers reach a new equilibrium at higher altitudes.
“Glaciers are good indicators of climate change because their retreat allows us to see with our own eyes how climate is changing. However, since they adjust over longer timescales, their current size vastly understates the magnitude of climate change that has already happened. The situation for glaciers is actually far worse than visible in the mountains today,” added co-lead author Lilian Schuster from the University of Innsbruck.
In addition to contributing to sea level rise, glacier retreat affects the availability of fresh water, increases the risk of glacier-related hazards and threatens glacier-based tourism. These multifaceted consequences echo the urgent need for robust global climate policy.
Published in the journal Science, this study is a significant contribution to the United Nations International Year of Glacier Preservation in 2025, stressing the importance of immediate global climate actions to protect the world’s glaciers.
The research, part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project (GlacierMIP) coordinated by the Climate and Cryosphere project of the World Climate Research Program, underscores the pressing need to adhere to stringent climate goals to mitigate the impending glacier loss.
Source: University of Bremen