A groundbreaking Stanford-led study reveals that shifting to clean energy technologies by 2060 will boost energy security for most nations, reducing their dependence on fossil fuels.
A transition from fossil fuels to clean energy technologies by 2060 could significantly enhance energy security and reduce trade risks for most nations, according to a recent study led by researchers at Stanford University and published in Nature Climate Change.
Key materials such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and rare earth minerals are essential for building energy systems that do not rely on fossil fuels. Unlike fossil fuels, these materials are primarily found in the Global South, shifting the dynamics of energy geopolitics and global trade.
“Most people are focused on the new stuff that could be a problem, and not really considering the security benefits of moving away from fossil fuels,” senior author Steve Davis, a professor of Earth system science in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, said in a news release. “For most countries in a net-zero emissions system in the future, trading off the reduced dependence on imported fossil fuels and increased dependence on these new materials is actually a win for energy security.”
Even the United States, known for its vast fossil fuel reserves but limited critical mineral deposits, could see a boost in energy security by adopting decarbonization measures. The study highlights that, despite being a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum since 2020, the United States still imports millions of barrels daily from countries like Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Colombia.
“Generating electricity with solar and wind will require more imports than using abundant gas and coal resources in the U.S., but reduced dependence on foreign oil will be a big advantage as transportation is electrified,” Davis added.
Systematic analysis and a newly developed trade risk index played crucial roles in the study. Lead author Jing Cheng, a postdoctoral scholar in Davis’s Sustainable Solutions Lab at Stanford, compiled a comprehensive database detailing countries’ reserves of various fossil fuels and critical materials, alongside their trade flows.
The research examined 1,092 different scenarios for reaching net-zero carbon emissions globally by 2060, as modeled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These scenarios accounted for a mix of energy sources, including nuclear, solar and wind power. For each scenario, the team assessed the potential new vulnerabilities and trade risks for 236 countries, using a “trade risk index” to quantify energy security.
The study’s findings are encouraging. They indicate that if countries maintain their current trade networks, trade-related risks to energy security would decrease on average by 19% in net-zero scenarios. With an expansion of trade networks, these risks could be halved. Reducing reliance on imported materials through improved recycling, extended technology lifespans and less material-intensive designs also emerged as viable strategies to minimize trade risks.
Significantly, a U.S. energy mix consisting of approximately 70-75% renewable energy sources, 15-20% fossil fuels and 10% nuclear energy would optimize trade risks, the study reveals. Currently, fossil fuels account for about 83% of the U.S. energy supply.
Cheng underscored the advantage of renewable sources.
“However, advancing solar photovoltaic manufacturing technologies with more widely available, lower-grade silicon sources, or expanding trade networks with countries rich in silicon and manganese reserves, could further significantly bolster the nation’s energy security,” she said in the news release.
Ultimately, the importance of diversification in energy imports is emphasized throughout the study.
“If you’re importing a large fraction of what you need, that’s a vulnerability. If it’s all from a single other party, there’s a lot of risk that some natural disaster or geopolitical conflict could disrupt that supply,” Davis added. “You want to diversify imports among as many sources as you can.”
While the benefits of diversification have their limits, the study’s results offer a positive outlook.
“It is ultimately encouraging that most countries’ trade risks decrease in net-zero scenarios,” the authors conclude, “and that the greatest improvements often occur in the countries which most drastically reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.”
The study’s co-authors include researchers from Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Tsinghua University, Beijing Normal University and Peking University.