A new study from Peking University reveals how China’s forestation efforts could significantly contribute to its goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, offering a vital strategy to offset difficult-to-reduce emissions.
A team of researchers led by Piao Shilong, a professor at Peking University’s Institute of Carbon Neutrality, has made striking strides in understanding China’s carbon sequestration potential through strategic land-use changes, such as forest planting. Their findings, published in Nature Communications, suggest that China’s forests could play a crucial role in offsetting carbon emissions, providing valuable insight as the nation aims for carbon neutrality by 2060.
The study elaborates on how land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) can significantly contribute to carbon sequestration, a major policy pillar for China under the Paris Agreement. As the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide grapples with its environmental commitments, the research offers a beacon of hope.
The research confirms that China’s ongoing forestation efforts have turned the country’s land-use changes into a significant carbon sink. According to the study, from 1994 to 2018, China’s forests absorbed an impressive amount of carbon, aligning with the country’s national greenhouse gas inventories.
China’s commitment to becoming carbon neutral by 2060 involves balancing carbon emissions with carbon removal. Land-based solutions, particularly through forestation, are critical in this effort. While various models have previously offered differing estimates on how much carbon China’s forests can sequester, this study offers a more accurate insight into their role within the nation’s carbon budget.
Key Findings
The study confirms that planting trees and restoring forests have made China’s land-use changes a significant carbon sink. This means more carbon is absorbed by the land than is emitted, about one-third of hard-to-abate emissions by 2060.
Continued forestation, at the current pace, can aid China in offsetting emissions that are difficult to cut back in other sectors like energy and industry. These findings are aligned with China’s goals to abate tough emissions through consistent afforestation.
The study cautions that the capability to sequester carbon through forestation will plateau as available land diminishes. After mid-century, the potential for new forests to capture carbon is expected to decline.
The researchers emphasize the importance of extending forestation efforts beyond 2035, as these are vital for maximizing carbon removal from the LULUCF sector to ensure the carbon neutrality target is met.
The research introduces a refined model, OSCAR-China, to provide precise estimates of carbon removal through land-use changes. This model incorporates both direct and indirect effects, offering a clearer picture of the actual carbon capture by China’s forests.
Significance
This study carries significant implications for policymakers, offering actionable insights on maximizing carbon sequestration strategies. Although forestation plays an important role, the study underscores that it cannot be China’s sole strategy for achieving carbon neutrality. Efforts across all sectors, particularly energy and industry, will be crucial for broader emissions reduction.
Additionally, improving carbon accounting methods is essential to accurately measure land-based carbon sequestration efforts.