Fossil fuel emissions are set to reach a record high of 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, according to the Global Carbon Project’s latest report. While some progress has been made in reducing emissions, the rise in global energy demand and other factors continue to challenge climate change mitigation efforts.
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record high of 38.1 billion tonnes, according to the latest research from the Global Carbon Project (GCP). The report, titled the 2025 Global Carbon Budget, underscores the urgent need for increased efforts to combat climate change as it projects that the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is nearly exhausted.
The rise in emissions comes despite significant progress in the decarbonization of energy systems in many countries. However, the growth in global energy demand is outpacing these efforts.
Land-use changes, such as deforestation, are expected to contribute another 4.1 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2025, although this is a slight decrease from previous years.
“With CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,” Pierre Friedlingstein, a professor in the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute who led the study, said in a news release. “The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C, 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be gone before 2030 at current emission rate. We estimate that climate change is now reducing the combined land and ocean sinks – a clear signal from Planet Earth that we need to dramatically reduce emissions.”
The study also highlights that the 2023-24 El Niño weather pattern, which caused heat and drought in many regions, has ended, allowing natural ecosystems to recover and absorb more CO2 this year. Yet this recovery has not been enough to offset the continued rise in emissions.
“Efforts to tackle climate change are visible, with 35 countries succeeding in reducing their emissions while growing their economies, twice as much as a decade ago, and important progress in reducing reliance on fossil fuels elsewhere,” added Corinne Le Quéré, a Royal Society research professor at the University of East Anglia. “The emerging impacts of climate change on the carbon sinks is worrying and stresses further the need for urgent action.”
The GCP report, published alongside a new paper in the journal Nature, finds that 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1960 is due to climate change weakening the land and ocean sinks. These sinks, vital for absorbing a significant portion of emissions, are now less effective due to climate impacts.
Key findings from the report include:
- China’s emissions in 2025 are projected to increase by 0.4%, showing slower growth due to a rise in renewable energy.
- India’s emissions are expected to grow by 1.4%, also at a slower rate due to an early monsoon and increased renewables.
- Emissions in the United States and European Union are projected to rise by 1.9% and 0.4%, respectively, while Japan’s emissions are expected to decrease by 2.2%.
- Emissions from international aviation are set to grow by 6.8%, surpassing pre-COVID levels, while those from international shipping are expected to remain flat.
“It is 10 years since the Paris Agreement was negotiated, and despite progress on many fronts, fossil CO2 emissions continue their relentless rise,” added Glen Peters, a senior researcher at CICERO Center for International Climate Research. “Climate change and variability are also having a discernable effect on our natural climate sinks. It is clear countries need to lift their game. We now have strong evidence that clean technologies help reduce emissions while being cost effective compared to fossil alternatives.”
The report reveals that total CO2 emissions — the sum of fossil and land-use change emissions — have grown more slowly in the past decade, at 0.3% per year, compared to the previous decade’s 1.9%. Despite these slower growth rates, the challenge remains daunting. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 425.7 ppm in 2025, 52% above pre-industrial levels.
“The reduction in land-use emissions demonstrates the success that environmental policies can achieve. Deforestation rates in the Amazon have declined and are at their lowest level this season since 2014. Yet the sweeping fires in 2024 revealed how sensitive the ecosystem remains if we don’t also limit global warming,” added Julia Pongratz, a professor at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.
The ongoing increase in emissions, combined with the vulnerability of natural carbon sinks, stresses the critical need for immediate and substantial global action to address climate change. The 2025 Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 130 scientists, offers a rigorous, transparent update on global carbon emissions, providing the data necessary for informed climate policy and action.
Source: University of Exeter