A new study reveals that tropical forests are not adapting quickly enough to keep pace with climate change, threatening their long-term resilience and biodiversity.
A newly published study by an international team of over 100 scientists and local partners has revealed that tropical forests across the Americas are not adapting rapidly enough to the accelerating pace of climate change. This major finding raises substantial concerns about the long-term resilience and adaptability of these vital ecosystems.
The comprehensive study, led by Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez from the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, and including researchers from the University of Adelaide, involved the analysis of data from 415 permanent forest plots spread from Mexico to southern Brazil. The research included the evaluation of traits from over 250,000 trees.
“Due to how rapidly climate change is altering temperature and precipitation patterns, tree communities are responding too slowly to remain in equilibrium with their environment,” Sami Rifai, a lecturer at the University of Adelaide’s School of Biological Sciences, said in a news release.
The researchers assessed a dozen functional traits — including leaf size, wood density and maximum height — from over a thousand tree species. They tracked growth, mortality and recruitment for more than a quarter-million trees over the past 40 years. The study revealed that these forest traits have only shifted by less than 8% of what is necessary to match the changes in climate.
“By 2100, temperatures in the region could rise by up to 4°C, with rainfall decreasing by as much as 20%. This could push tropical forests further out of balance, making them more vulnerable to extreme climate events,” Rifai added.
Published in the journal Science, the study highlights a concerning trend: instead of adapting in proportion to the climate changes, the forest traits are lagging significantly behind. This slow adaptation is alarming given the critical role tropical rainforests play in global climate regulation and biodiversity conservation.
“This is a worrying finding given the importance of tropical rainforests for sustaining species diversity and the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere,” added Rifai.
One significant insight from the study is the varying responses of individual tree species to climate changes.
“By looking at individual trees from different communities, we found some have suffered due to climate shifts, while others have thrived. If we know what species of trees are doing better or worse, and what set of traits they have, then we know what they can withstand,” Aguirre-Gutiérrez added.
This information could guide conservation actions, helping prioritize areas and species most in need of support and funding, and thereby informing more effective resource allocation.
Source: University of Adelaide