New research led by the University of Exeter highlights that climate change poses a significant threat to banana export production in Latin America and the Caribbean, potentially making it economically unsustainable by 2080 without immediate interventions.
New research led by the University of Exeter warns that rising temperatures caused by climate change could make it economically unsustainable to grow bananas for export in numerous regions of Latin America and the Caribbean by 2080. Published in the journal Nature Food, the study indicates that without urgent interventions, 60% of the current banana-producing areas will face severe challenges in maintaining their production levels.
Led by Dan Bebber, a professor in the Department of Biosciences at the University of Exeter, the research highlights that the looming crisis will not only affect the environment but also pose a direct threat to global food security and livelihoods.
“Our findings are a stark reminder that climate change is not just an environmental issue but a direct threat to global food security and livelihoods,” Bebber said in a new release. “Without substantial investment in adaptation, including irrigation and heat-tolerant banana varieties, the future of export banana production looks uncertain,”
Bananas represent a critical export crop valued at $11 billion annually and are essential for the economies of many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.
However, the study found that socioeconomic factors, such as labor availability and infrastructure, hinder climate change adaptation efforts. Most banana production occurs near densely populated areas and ports, which restricts the possibility of relocating to more suitable regions.
The researchers utilized advanced satellite imagery to map banana production in these areas with high precision, assessing the climate conditions favorable for banana growth.
The study revealed that climate change would diminish optimal conditions for banana cultivation, particularly impacting countries like Colombia and Costa Rica, which are expected to become too hot for effective banana farming. On the other hand, Ecuador and parts of Brazil may continue to be significant producers due to less severe projected climate changes.
Varun Varma of Rothamsted Research, who developed the remote sensing algorithms for the project, and José Antonio Guzmán Alvarez from the Costa Rican organization CORBANA, which supports the national banana industry, also contributed to the study.
To address these challenges, the researchers propose several strategies, including the expansion of irrigation infrastructure, the development of heat- and drought-tolerant banana varieties, and boosting support for banana producers to mitigate climate risks.
“Bananas are one of the world’s most important fruits, not only for consumers but for millions of workers in producing countries. It’s crucial we act now to safeguard the industry against the dual threats of climate change and emerging diseases,” Bebber added.
The study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive measures to secure the future of the banana export industry in the face of climate change.
Source: University of Exeter