Wildfire smoke could cause 30,000 additional deaths annually in the U.S. by 2050, warns a new study led by Stanford University. The research highlights the growing health risks and economic costs driven by climate change-induced wildfires.
A new study led by Stanford University highlights a grim future where wildfire smoke could result in approximately 30,000 additional deaths annually in the United States by 2050. This startling estimate stems from the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires fueled by warmer, drier conditions due to climate change.
“There’s a broad understanding that wildfire activity and wildfire smoke exposure are changing quickly. This is a lived experience, unfortunately, for folks on the West Coast over the last decade and folks on the East Coast in the last few years,” senior author Marshall Burke, a professor of environmental social sciences in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, said in a news release. “Our paper puts some numbers on what that change in exposure means for health outcomes, both now and in the future as the climate warms.”
The research, published in the journal Nature, underscores that no U.S. community is immune to the dangers of wildfire smoke.
The economic cost of these smoke-related deaths could inflate to $608 billion annually by 2050 under the current trajectory of global emissions, thereby surpassing the economic damage from all other climate-related impacts combined, including agricultural losses, temperature-related deaths and storm damage.
“What we see, and this is consistent with what others find, is a nationwide increase in wildfire smoke,” added lead study author Minghao Qiu, an assistant professor at Stony Brook University who conducted the study as a postdoctoral researcher in Burke’s lab. “There are larger increases on the West Coast, but there’s also long-range transport of wildfire smoke across the country, including massive recent smoke events in the Eastern and Midwestern U.S. from Canadian fires.”
The toxic mix of chemicals in wildfire smoke poses severe health risks, including fine particulate matter known as PM2.5, which can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream. These pollutants can cause deaths that manifest up to three years after initial exposure.
Qiu, Burke and their colleagues utilized death records from 2006 to 2019, ground-level smoke emissions data, and machine learning models to predict future health impacts under different climate scenarios.
The study’s findings indicate that, under a business-as-usual emissions scenario, the annual death toll from smoke PM2.5 exposure could soar by over 70% to 70,000 deaths per year by 2050.
The most affected states would include California (5,060 additional deaths), New York (1,810), Washington (1,730), Texas (1,700) and Pennsylvania (1,600).
The authors highlight the “hidden tax” on families and public health systems, with smoke exposure adding significant financial strain. Even with rapid global emission cuts to stabilize temperatures, smoke-related deaths in the United States could still exceed 60,000 annually by mid-century.
“If you look at the leading climate impact assessment tools that are used to inform policy, none of them incorporate how changes in climate could influence wildfire smoke and related human mortality,” Qiu added. “Our study shows climate models are missing a huge part of the climate impacts in the U.S. – it’s like leaving the main character out of a movie.”
Mitigating this escalating problem demands action from public health officials and community leaders. Measures such as improved indoor air filtration, prescribed burns and other fuel management approaches could help reduce exposure and manage wildfire intensity.
“Our understanding of who is vulnerable to this exposure is much broader than we thought,” Burke added. “It’s pregnant people, it’s kids in schools, it’s anyone with asthma, it’s people with cancer. We look at one specific health outcome in this study – mortality – and unfortunately find a shared burden of exposure for individuals across the U.S.”
The collaborative effort of researchers from institutions including the University of California, San Diego, the University of Washington, Princeton University and federal agencies highlights the interdisciplinary nature of tackling this pressing issue.