A sweeping analysis of climate policies in 43 major economies finds that tougher, better-targeted rules are already cutting billions of tons of carbon dioxide. The study offers a roadmap for governments to speed up emissions cuts when the world needs it most.
Countries that adopt tougher, smarter climate policies are cutting carbon pollution significantly faster than those that do not, according to a major new international study.
Drawing on the most comprehensive climate policy dataset assembled to date, researchers from the UK, Germany, Austria and Norway examined more than 3,900 climate policies adopted since 2000 in 43 leading economies. Together, those countries account for well over three quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Their conclusion: climate policy is working — and how governments design and target those policies can dramatically change how quickly emissions fall.
By comparing today’s world with a scenario in which no climate policies existed, the team estimates that more than 3 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide were avoided in 2022 alone. That is roughly equal to the European Union’s annual emissions.
The findings directly counter the idea that climate laws are mostly for show, according to lead author Charlie Wilson, a professor of energy and climate change and a senior research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute.
“Climate policies are not just symbolic gestures; they are working. The countries that focus policies where emissions are highest are reaping the biggest benefits. This shows that careful design and strategic focus really matter,” Wilson said in a news release.
The study, published in Nature Communications, looked at climate policies across the energy, industry, transport, buildings and agriculture and waste sectors in 43 OECD and BRIICS countries between 2000 and 2022. The researchers tracked not only how many policies each country adopted, but also how strict they were, which sectors they targeted and what kinds of policy tools they used.
They then linked those policy portfolios to changes in emissions intensity — the amount of carbon dioxide released per unit of gross domestic product. Countries with more stringent climate policies in place reduced emissions intensity faster than those with weaker or fewer measures.
Targeting the biggest polluters
One of the clearest messages from the analysis is that where policies are aimed matters as much as how many are on the books.
Policies focused on high-emitting sectors, especially energy and transport, had the greatest impact on cutting emissions intensity. That includes measures such as carbon pricing, fuel standards, renewable energy incentives and regulations on power plants and heavy industry.
In other words, governments get the most climate impact when they concentrate their efforts on the sectors that burn the most fossil fuels, rather than spreading policies thinly across the entire economy.
The study also highlights the importance of long-term direction. Countries that set clearly defined, legally anchored climate targets — such as net-zero emissions goals — and created dedicated ministries or agencies to oversee progress got more out of every policy they adopted.
Co-lead author Theo Arvanitopoulos, of Cardiff University and the London School of Economics, noted those institutional choices matter in practice, not just on paper.
“Long-term climate targets and dedicated ministries aren’t just paperwork; they boost the real-world impact of climate policies. Our robust analysis of large policy portfolios shows they strengthen what governments can achieve, despite growing political debate about their effectiveness,” Arvanitopoulos said in the news release.
Economic tools lead, but no single fix
The researchers also compared different types of policy instruments: economic tools such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems, regulatory measures such as efficiency standards, and voluntary approaches like information campaigns or industry pledges.
They found that economic instruments were, on average, the most effective at reducing emissions intensity. But the story is more nuanced than simply recommending one type of policy for every country.
The data show that countries tend to do best when they lean into what they already know how to implement well, according to co-lead author Simon Bulian of Heidelberg University.
“Our study shows that economic instruments were most effective in reducing emission intensity, compared to regulatory or voluntary approaches. However, our findings also suggest a positive impact of policy traditions: countries that specialised in a particular type of instrument (economic or regulatory) were the most successful in reducing emission intensity. Economic instruments are not necessarily a one-size-fits-all solution,” Bulian said.
That suggests governments can make faster progress by building on their existing strengths — for example, by tightening established regulatory frameworks or expanding successful market-based programs — rather than trying to copy every policy used elsewhere.
Power of cooperation
The study also points to the benefits of international cooperation. Membership in organizations such as the International Energy Agency or the Clean Energy Ministerial was associated with more effective climate policies.
Such bodies help countries share best practices, coordinate standards and learn from each other’s successes and failures, which can amplify the impact of national measures.
For students, policymakers and citizens watching global climate negotiations, the findings offer both reassurance and a challenge.
On one hand, they show that the last two decades of climate policy have made a measurable difference. Billions of tons of emissions have been avoided, and countries that have taken climate policy seriously have bent their emissions-intensity curves downward faster.
On the other hand, global emissions are still too high to keep warming within internationally agreed limits, and the pace of change remains far short of what scientists say is needed.
Wilson stressed that dual reality.
“Our study is good news for climate policy efforts so far: it’s working. But emissions are still too high so it’s not working fast enough. The challenge now is to use what we’ve learnt to accelerate progress towards a stable climate,” he said.
A roadmap for what works
For governments, the study offers a practical roadmap: adopt more stringent policies, focus them on the most polluting sectors, back them up with clear long-term climate targets and strong institutions, and engage actively in international cooperation.
The open dataset behind the study — which draws on sources including the International Energy Agency’s greenhouse gas and policy databases — has been made publicly available, along with replication code, to encourage further research and transparency.
As countries revise their climate plans in the coming years, the authors argue that the evidence from the past two decades can help them avoid trial and error and instead double down on what has already been shown to work.
The message, they say, is that climate policy is not an abstract exercise. When designed and implemented well, it changes how economies grow, how energy is produced and used, and how quickly the world can move toward a safer climate future.
Source: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford