A new study by IIASA highlights the importance of sustainable development in mitigating the economic impact of climate-driven wildfires. The research suggests that robust adaptation strategies and social investments can significantly reduce financial losses.
Climate-related wildfires are increasingly becoming a global concern, as evidenced by the recent blazes raging across the northern hemisphere. New research by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) underscores the need for sustainable development to mitigate the financial damage caused by these fires, emphasizing the profound influence of social and economic vulnerability on the scale of the impact.
Wildfires are wreaking havoc globally, causing widespread destruction to lives, property and economies. Their repercussions are felt in nearly every region, from affluent nations to low-income countries, with the brunt of the devastation typically borne by communities least equipped to recover.
As the climate continues to change, extending and intensifying fire seasons, the expected financial damages from wildfires will rise, straining national budgets, disrupting livelihoods, and deepening existing social and economic inequalities.
The study, led by Yi-Ling Hwong from IIASA’s Integrated Climate Impacts Research Group, analyzed wildfire data from 165 countries to understand why certain nations suffer greater financial losses than others.
“We wanted to identify the key drivers of economic damages caused by wildfires worldwide and to project how these damages might change in the future under different climate and development scenarios. This is important because, while increasing wildfire frequency and severity are well recognized as impacts of climate change, much less is understood about what determines the resulting financial losses, especially at the global scale,” Hwong said in a news release.
The research employed future projections under varied climate change and developmental pathways.
The findings, published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate, reveal that by 2070, the economic damages from wildfires could be three times higher in a high-emission scenario compared to a pathway focusing on sustainable development.
Remarkably, in the Global South, the benefits of a more sustainable trajectory could account for avoided wildfire losses exceeding 2% of GDP — significantly more than in high-income countries.
“Most wildfire studies focus on burned areas and consistently identify climate as the main driver. Based on this, we initially expected climate to also be behind most of the wildfire costs. Hence, our finding that socioeconomic conditions also play a crucial role is very interesting. It suggests that we are not powerless in the face of increasing wildfire risks, and that robust adaptation strategies and sustainable development measures play a decisive role in mitigating the economic damages of wildfires,” added co-author Edward Byers, a researcher in the IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program.
The research advocates for robust adaptation measures integrated within a broader sustainable development framework. If CO₂ emissions continue to escalate under a high-emissions scenario, the worsening climate impacts could ultimately undermine countries’ adaptive capacities.
For policymakers, this underscores that wildfire strategies must transcend simply fighting fires or reducing emissions to incorporate social investments that improve governance, infrastructure and equality.
Ultimately, the researchers stress that reducing the economic toll of wildfires demands serious climate action coupled with strong, inclusive development. The importance of building resilient and prepared societies cannot be overstated.
“While the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires driven by climate change are alarming, as recently seen in the devastating wildfires raging across Europe and other parts of the world, our research shows that a country’s social and economic strength can be a decisive factor in determining how badly those fires impact its economy,” Hwong concluded. “This means that addressing wildfire risks is not only about fighting fires or controlling emissions. It is fundamentally about building more equitable, stable and prepared societies.”
Source: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)