A new study outlines China’s pathway to carbon neutrality by 2060, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s 2°C target and emphasizing renewable energy development over costly early-stage technologies.
In a new study published in the journal Engineering, Chinese scientists have laid out an attainable roadmap for the nation to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, in alignment with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This research delves into the intricacies of China’s carbon peak and neutralization pathways, spotlighting renewable energy and industrial transformation as key strategies.
The implications of this landmark study are vital globally. The Paris Agreement seeks to curb global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, with an aspirational cap at 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, for China, a 1.5 degrees Celsius target journey is fraught with considerably higher costs — potentially three to four times greater than the 2 degrees Celsius target.
The researchers propose that China could achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 sans the early and extensive deployment of economically burdensome technologies like direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS).
The researchers project that China’s anthropogenic CO₂ emissions will peak between 2028 and 2029, hitting around 12.8 billion tonnes, before commencing a steady decline. This trend hinges significantly on aggressive renewable energy adoption and a transformative shift in the energy system. An estimated 2.1 billion tonnes of carbon sinks from terrestrial ecosystems will support this transition.
Despite the supportive role of natural ecosystems as carbon sinks, emission reduction remains pivotal. The future might see these sinks diminishing in efficacy due to climate warming. Thus, substantial and persistent efforts to slay emissions are non-negotiable for China.
The study further probes the potential for climate overshoot and the judicious use of negative-emission technologies. The researchers recommend a measured approach, noting the economic and practical challenges of premature large-scale technology rollouts. Instead, an expedited push for renewable energy and substantial industrial adjustments are central to China’s strategy.
The anticipated ramifications of China achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 are profound. With a deceleration in global greenhouse gas emissions, there is a plausible decline in the rate of global temperature rise, mitigating the risk of hitting devastating climate tipping points. This could also mellow the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though the climate system’s intricate lag effects demand consideration.
The study further touches on mitigating the loss and damage stemming from climate warming. The equitable approach to China’s carbon neutrality journey, especially in tackling methane emissions, acknowledges the compounded challenge posed by the country’s vast population and economic heft. Nevertheless, China’s resolve to pursue carbon neutrality dovetails with a broader vision of fostering a green development pathway.
The scientists advocate for continued exploration in several domains. These include refining carbon-neutral pathways, enhancing the precision of Earth system models, and advancing observational research. Amid prevailing uncertainties — whether in energy consumption, renewable energy evolution or nascent negative-emission technologies — the insights from this study serve as a compass for China’s climate policy and its consequential global impact.