{"id":38824,"date":"2026-06-29T15:44:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T15:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tun.com\/home\/?p=38824"},"modified":"2026-06-30T16:40:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T16:40:22","slug":"new-study-says-only-38-will-live-in-big-cities-by-2100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tun.com\/home\/new-study-says-only-38-will-live-in-big-cities-by-2100\/","title":{"rendered":"New Study Says Only 38% Will Live in Big Cities by 2100"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-blockquote uagb-block-e7eb3fc3 uagb-blockquote__skin-border uagb-blockquote__stack-img-none\"><blockquote class=\"uagb-blockquote\"><div class=\"uagb-blockquote__content\">Researchers challenge conventional urban forecasts, finding that large cities lose their growth edge as countries become more urbanized. By 2100, just 38% of the global population is projected to live in cities of over 1 million people \u2014 far less than trending models predict.<\/div><footer><div class=\"uagb-blockquote__author-wrap uagb-blockquote__author-at-left\"><\/div><\/footer><\/blockquote><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-content-justification-space-between is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-b0ffac9c wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\"><div style=\"font-size:16px\" class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-post-author\"><div class=\"wp-block-post-author__content\"><p class=\"wp-block-post-author__name\">The University Network<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-social-share uagb-social-share__outer-wrap uagb-social-share__layout-horizontal uagb-block-ee584a31\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-social-share-child uagb-ss-repeater uagb-ss__wrapper uagb-block-ec619ce7\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__link\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"facebook\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__source-wrap\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__source-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"https:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M504 256C504 119 393 8 256 8S8 119 8 256c0 123.8 90.69 226.4 209.3 245V327.7h-63V256h63v-54.64c0-62.15 37-96.48 93.67-96.48 27.14 0 55.52 4.84 55.52 4.84v61h-31.28c-30.8 0-40.41 19.12-40.41 38.73V256h68.78l-11 71.69h-57.78V501C413.3 482.4 504 379.8 504 256z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-social-share-child uagb-ss-repeater uagb-ss__wrapper uagb-block-32d99934\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__link\" data-href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/share?url=\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"twitter\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__source-wrap\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__source-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"https:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 512 512\"><path d=\"M389.2 48h70.6L305.6 224.2 487 464H345L233.7 318.6 106.5 464H35.8L200.7 275.5 26.8 48H172.4L272.9 180.9 389.2 48zM364.4 421.8h39.1L151.1 88h-42L364.4 421.8z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-social-share-child uagb-ss-repeater uagb-ss__wrapper uagb-block-1d136f14\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__link\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/shareArticle?url=\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\" aria-label=\"linkedin\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__source-wrap\"><span class=\"uagb-ss__source-icon\"><svg xmlns=\"https:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\"><path d=\"M416 32H31.9C14.3 32 0 46.5 0 64.3v383.4C0 465.5 14.3 480 31.9 480H416c17.6 0 32-14.5 32-32.3V64.3c0-17.8-14.4-32.3-32-32.3zM135.4 416H69V202.2h66.5V416zm-33.2-243c-21.3 0-38.5-17.3-38.5-38.5S80.9 96 102.2 96c21.2 0 38.5 17.3 38.5 38.5 0 21.3-17.2 38.5-38.5 38.5zm282.1 243h-66.4V312c0-24.8-.5-56.7-34.5-56.7-34.6 0-39.9 27-39.9 54.9V416h-66.4V202.2h63.7v29.2h.9c8.9-16.8 30.6-34.5 62.9-34.5 67.2 0 79.7 44.3 79.7 101.9V416z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you&#8217;ve ever imagined the future as an endless sprawl of megacities, a new study wants to complicate that picture. Research <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2529430123\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">published<\/a> in the <em>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/em> by scientists at the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) and ETH Zurich finds that the gravitational pull of large cities weakens as nations urbanize \u2014 and that projection changes the math on where billions of people will actually live by the end of this century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Forecast Gap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Back in 1975, only about 11% of the global population called a city of more than 1 million home. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cToday, we estimate that share to be about 24%,\u201d lead author Andrea Musso, a junior fellow at the Complexity Science Hub and doctoral student at ETH Zurich, said in a news release. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The pace has been staggering: over the next 25 years alone, roughly 1 billion people are expected to move into cities \u2014 the equivalent of building a new New York City every two months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet the new model diverges sharply from what simple trend-line extrapolations would suggest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cCompared with simply extrapolating current trends, our model projects about 450 million fewer people living in million-plus cities by 2100 \u2013 a difference much larger than the current population of the United States,\u201d Musso added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That single gap \u2014 450 million people \u2014 is enough to reshape how governments, planners and investors think about the urban future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Big Cities Stop Dominating<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The core finding is that urban systems move through a predictable life cycle. In the early phases of a country&#8217;s development, major cities act like magnets, drawing people who are chasing jobs, healthcare, universities and opportunity. Musso&#8217;s team quantified this effect precisely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe found that between 1975 and 2025, cities with more than one million inhabitants in less urbanized countries, including many countries in Asia and Africa, grew about 7.3% faster than the average city in their respective country,\u201d added Musso.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that advantage erodes. In highly urbanized nations \u2014 much of Europe and the Americas \u2014 cities of all sizes have grown at roughly the same rate over the past half century. The megacity premium disappears, and smaller cities catch up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Frank Neffke, who leads the Transforming Economies research group at CSH and is also a professor at IT:U Interdisciplinary Transformation University Austria, stressed why the timing of that shift matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThat pace matters,\u201d Neffke said in the news release. \u201cDecisions about infrastructure, housing, transport, energy, and climate adaptation all depend on where people will live.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Hidden Trade-Offs of Urban Scale<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study also surfaces a tension that any student weighing a move to a major metro area might recognize. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Studies of US cities show that people in a city of one million spend more than twice as much time in traffic and are nearly three times more likely to contract certain diseases compared to those in a town of 10,000,&#8221; Musso added. &#8220;At the same time, residents of the million-person city are more than three times as innovative and almost twice as productive.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Neffke framed the economic stakes clearly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIf moving to a city leads to a doubling in productivity, then the rise of large cities can be a powerful driver of economic growth,\u201d he said. \u201cOur findings show that this driver gradually loses momentum as countries become more urbanized.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, the economic case for concentrating everything in a handful of megacities weakens as a country&#8217;s urban network matures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Methodological Overhaul<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the study&#8217;s most significant contributions is methodological. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Most earlier studies had to rely on administrative city boundaries,&#8221; Musso said. &#8220;But these boundaries are often misleading. Paris, for example, is much larger than the administrative City of Paris. New York is not just Manhattan &#8211; or even the five boroughs.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To get around that problem, the team built two entirely new datasets from scratch using satellite imagery and granular census records. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cWe divided the world into small grid cells, each roughly one square kilometer in size, and then determined, based on population and built-up area, whether a cell was urban or rural,\u201d added Musso. \u201cWe then linked clusters of urban cells over time and tracked how their populations changed.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This \u201charmonized way of defining city size is crucial to compare not just individual cities but entire urban systems both across space and in time,\u201d Neffke added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why It Matters for Students and Young Professionals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For college students deciding where to build a career \u2014 or for those studying urban planning, public policy, economics or environmental science \u2014 these findings carry direct practical weight. The assumption that global talent and opportunity will keep concentrating in a shrinking number of mega-hubs may simply be wrong. Smaller and mid-size cities could offer increasingly competitive prospects without the congestion and public-health downsides that scale brings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cKnowing that urban growth follows a predictable life cycle is enormously important for decision-makers,\u201d added Neffke. \u201cIt can help guide infrastructure planning, climate adaptation strategies, and forecasts of future economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Students entering fields tied to housing, transportation, climate resilience, or economic development are walking into a policy landscape where these recalibrated projections will likely reframe debates for decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An interactive data story exploring the study&#8217;s findings \u2014 including visualizations of how different boundary definitions change the apparent size of cities \u2014 is available at <a href=\"https:\/\/megacities.ch\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">megacities.ch<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:5px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Source:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/csh.ac.at\/news\/only-38-of-the-worlds-population-expected-to-live-in-large-cities-by-2100-study-challenges-current-forecasts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"\">Complexity Science Hub<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Researchers challenge conventional urban forecasts, finding that large cities lose their growth edge as countries become more urbanized. By 2100, just 38% of the global population is projected to live in cities of over 1 million people \u2014 far less than trending models predict.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":38823,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-no-separators","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[3322,130,3325,88,3326,3324,3323,3321],"class_list":["post-38824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-people-culture","tag-city-growth","tag-complexity-science-hub","tag-economic-development","tag-eth-zurich","tag-itu-interdisciplinary-transformation-university-austria","tag-population-trends","tag-urban-planning","tag-urbanization"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.8 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Researchers challenge conventional urban forecasts, finding that large cities lose their growth edge as countries become more urbanized. 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